- 오름50%
- 내림50%
예측 시장
선거·경제·스포츠·코인 가격 같은 일이 어떻게 될지 사람들이 돈을 걸어 매긴 확률입니다. 폴리마켓·칼시 두 곳을 한 화면에 모았습니다.
- 오름50.5%
- 내림49.5%
- 오름50.5%
- 내림49.5%
- $0.005 이상99.5%
- $0.01 이상99.5%
- $0.015 이상99.5%
- $0.02 이상99.5%
선택지 47개 더 보기
- $0.025 이상99.5%
- $0.03 이상99.5%
- $0.035 이상99.5%
- $0.04 이상99.5%
- $0.045 이상99.5%
- $0.05 이상99.5%
- $0.055 이상99.5%
- $0.06 이상99.5%
- $0.065 이상99.5%
- $0.07 이상99.5%
- $0.075 이상0%
- $0.08 이상0%
- $0.085 이상0%
- $0.09 이상0%
- $0.095 이상0%
- $0.1 이상0%
- $0.105 이상0%
- $0.11 이상0%
- $0.115 이상0%
- $0.12 이상0%
- $0.125 이상0%
- $0.13 이상0%
- $0.135 이상0%
- $0.14 이상0%
- $0.145 이상0%
- $0.15 이상0%
- $0.155 이상0%
- $0.16 이상0%
- $0.165 이상0%
- $0.17 이상0%
- $0.175 이상0%
- $0.18 이상0%
- $0.185 이상0%
- $0.19 이상0%
- $0.195 이상0%
- $0.2 이상0%
나머지 11개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $0.005 이상99.5%
- $0.01 이상99.5%
- $0.015 이상99.5%
- $0.02 이상99.5%
선택지 29개 더 보기
- $0.025 이상99.5%
- $0.03 이상99.5%
- $0.035 이상99.5%
- $0.04 이상73.5%
- $0.05 이상73.5%
- $0.055 이상73.5%
- $0.065 이상73.5%
- $0.07 이상73.5%
- $0.045 이상71.5%
- $0.06 이상71.5%
- $0.11 이상0%
- $0.115 이상0%
- $0.12 이상0%
- $0.125 이상0%
- $0.13 이상0%
- $0.135 이상0%
- $0.14 이상0%
- $0.145 이상0%
- $0.15 이상0%
- $0.155 이상0%
- $0.16 이상0%
- $0.165 이상0%
- $0.075 이상0%
- $0.08 이상0%
- $0.085 이상0%
- $0.1 이상0%
- $0.09 이상0%
- $0.095 이상0%
- $0.105 이상0%
- $0.005 이상99.5%
- $0.01 이상99.5%
- $0.015 이상99.5%
- $0.02 이상99.5%
선택지 34개 더 보기
- $0.025 이상99.5%
- $0.03 이상73.5%
- $0.035 이상73.5%
- $0.045 이상73.5%
- $0.06 이상72%
- $0.04 이상71.5%
- $0.05 이상71.5%
- $0.055 이상71.5%
- $0.065 이상66%
- $0.07 이상58%
- $0.075 이상29%
- $0.17 이상0%
- $0.175 이상0%
- $0.18 이상0%
- $0.185 이상0%
- $0.19 이상0%
- $0.15 이상0%
- $0.1 이상0%
- $0.11 이상0%
- $0.115 이상0%
- $0.125 이상0%
- $0.14 이상0%
- $0.155 이상0%
- $0.165 이상0%
- $0.095 이상0%
- $0.105 이상0%
- $0.12 이상0%
- $0.13 이상0%
- $0.135 이상0%
- $0.145 이상0%
- $0.16 이상0%
- $0.085 이상0%
- $0.09 이상0%
- $0.08 이상0%
- $0.0000005 이상99.5%
- $0.000001 이상99.5%
- $0.0000015 이상99.5%
- $0.000002 이상99.5%
선택지 23개 더 보기
- $0.000003 이상71%
- $0.0000035 이상68%
- $0.000004 이상61.5%
- $0.0000025 이상60.5%
- $0.000007 이상0%
- $0.0000075 이상0%
- $0.000008 이상0%
- $0.0000085 이상0%
- $0.000009 이상0%
- $0.0000095 이상0%
- $0.00001 이상0%
- $0.0000105 이상0%
- $0.000011 이상0%
- $0.0000115 이상0%
- $0.000012 이상0%
- $0.0000125 이상0%
- $0.000013 이상0%
- $0.0000135 이상0%
- $0.000005 이상0%
- $0.0000055 이상0%
- $0.0000065 이상0%
- $0.000006 이상0%
- $0.0000045 이상0%
- $47.5 이상99.5%
- $47.75 이상99.5%
- $48 이상99.5%
- $48.25 이상99.5%
선택지 296개 더 보기
- $48.5 이상99.5%
- $48.75 이상99.5%
- $49 이상99.5%
- $49.25 이상99.5%
- $49.5 이상99.5%
- $49.75 이상99.5%
- $50 이상99.5%
- $50.25 이상99.5%
- $50.5 이상99.5%
- $50.75 이상99.5%
- $51 이상99.5%
- $51.25 이상99.5%
- $51.5 이상99.5%
- $51.75 이상99.5%
- $52 이상99.5%
- $52.25 이상99.5%
- $52.5 이상99.5%
- $52.75 이상99.5%
- $53 이상99.5%
- $53.25 이상99.5%
- $53.5 이상99.5%
- $53.75 이상99.5%
- $54 이상99.5%
- $54.25 이상99.5%
- $54.5 이상99.5%
- $54.75 이상99.5%
- $55 이상99.5%
- $55.25 이상99.5%
- $55.5 이상99.5%
- $55.75 이상99.5%
- $56 이상99.5%
- $56.25 이상99.5%
- $56.5 이상99.5%
- $56.75 이상99.5%
- $57 이상99.5%
- $57.25 이상99.5%
나머지 260개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $77.5 to 77.749934%
- $77.25 to 77.499931%
- $77.75 to 77.999915%
- $76.75 to 76.999914%
선택지 296개 더 보기
- $77 to 77.249911%
- $78 to 78.24993.5%
- $100 to 100.24990%
- $100.25 to 100.49990%
- $100.5 to 100.74990%
- $100.75 to 100.99990%
- $101 to 101.24990%
- $101.25 to 101.49990%
- $101.5 to 101.74990%
- $101.75 to 101.99990%
- $102 to 102.24990%
- $102.25 to 102.49990%
- $102.5 to 102.74990%
- $102.75 to 102.99990%
- $103 to 103.24990%
- $103.25 to 103.49990%
- $103.5 to 103.74990%
- $103.75 to 103.99990%
- $104 to 104.24990%
- $104.25 to 104.49990%
- $104.5 to 104.74990%
- $104.75 to 104.99990%
- $105 to 105.24990%
- $105.25 to 105.49990%
- $105.5 to 105.74990%
- $105.75 to 105.99990%
- $106 to 106.24990%
- $106.25 to 106.49990%
- $106.5 to 106.74990%
- $106.75 to 106.99990%
- $107 to 107.24990%
- $107.25 to 107.49990%
- $107.5 to 107.74990%
- $107.75 to 107.99990%
- $108 to 108.24990%
- $108.25 to 108.49990%
나머지 260개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $76 to 76.999932%
- $77 to 77.999932%
- $78 to 78.999932%
- $74 to 74.999930.5%
선택지 46개 더 보기
- $79 to 79.999930.5%
- $81 to 81.999930.5%
- $72 to 72.999930%
- $73 to 73.999930%
- $75 to 75.999930%
- $80 to 80.999930%
- $100 to 100.99990%
- $53 to 53.99990%
- $54 to 54.99990%
- $55 to 55.99990%
- $56 to 56.99990%
- $57 to 57.99990%
- $58 to 58.99990%
- $59 to 59.99990%
- $60 to 60.99990%
- $61 to 61.99990%
- $62 to 62.99990%
- $63 to 63.99990%
- $64 to 64.99990%
- $65 to 65.99990%
- $66 to 66.99990%
- $67 to 67.99990%
- $68 to 68.99990%
- $69 to 69.99990%
- $70 to 70.99990%
- $71 to 71.99990%
- $82 to 82.99990%
- $83 to 83.99990%
- $84 to 84.99990%
- $85 to 85.99990%
- $86 to 86.99990%
- $87 to 87.99990%
- $88 to 88.99990%
- $89 to 89.99990%
- $90 to 90.99990%
- $91 to 91.99990%
나머지 10개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $0.07 to 0.074999998.5%
- $0.01 to 0.01499990%
- $0.015 to 0.01999990%
- $0.02 to 0.02499990%
선택지 47개 더 보기
- $0.025 to 0.02999990%
- $0.03 to 0.03499990%
- $0.035 to 0.03999990%
- $0.04 to 0.04499990%
- $0.045 to 0.04999990%
- $0.05 to 0.05499990%
- $0.055 to 0.05999990%
- $0.06 to 0.06499990%
- $0.08 to 0.08499990%
- $0.085 to 0.08999990%
- $0.09 to 0.09499990%
- $0.095 to 0.09999990%
- $0.1 to 0.10499990%
- $0.105 to 0.10999990%
- $0.11 to 0.11499990%
- $0.115 to 0.11999990%
- $0.12 to 0.12499990%
- $0.125 to 0.12999990%
- $0.13 to 0.13499990%
- $0.135 to 0.13999990%
- $0.14 to 0.14499990%
- $0.145 to 0.14999990%
- $0.15 to 0.15499990%
- $0.155 to 0.15999990%
- $0.16 to 0.16499990%
- $0.165 to 0.16999990%
- $0.17 to 0.17499990%
- $0.175 to 0.17999990%
- $0.18 to 0.18499990%
- $0.185 to 0.18999990%
- $0.19 to 0.19499990%
- $0.195 to 0.19999990%
- $0.2 to 0.20499990%
- $0.205 to 0.20999990%
- $0.21 to 0.21499990%
- $0.215 to 0.21999990%
나머지 11개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $0.07 to 0.074999934.5%
- $0.065 to 0.069999927.5%
- $0.075 to 0.079999925%
- $0.01 to 0.01499990%
선택지 34개 더 보기
- $0.015 to 0.01999990%
- $0.02 to 0.02499990%
- $0.165 to 0.16999990%
- $0.17 to 0.17499990%
- $0.175 to 0.17999990%
- $0.18 to 0.18499990%
- $0.185 to 0.18999990%
- $0.0099999 이하0%
- $0.19 이상0%
- $0.035 to 0.03999990%
- $0.04 to 0.04499990%
- $0.055 to 0.05999990%
- $0.095 to 0.09999990%
- $0.105 to 0.10999990%
- $0.11 to 0.11499990%
- $0.125 to 0.12999990%
- $0.13 to 0.13499990%
- $0.145 to 0.14999990%
- $0.15 to 0.15499990%
- $0.025 to 0.02999990%
- $0.045 to 0.04999990%
- $0.1 to 0.10499990%
- $0.115 to 0.11999990%
- $0.12 to 0.12499990%
- $0.135 to 0.13999990%
- $0.14 to 0.14499990%
- $0.155 to 0.15999990%
- $0.03 to 0.03499990%
- $0.05 to 0.05499990%
- $0.085 to 0.08999990%
- $0.09 to 0.09499990%
- $0.16 to 0.16499990%
- $0.06 to 0.06499990%
- $0.08 to 0.08499990%
- $690 to 694.9961.5%
- $695 to 699.9937.5%
- $510 to 514.990%
- $515 to 519.990%
선택지 71개 더 보기
- $520 to 524.990%
- $525 to 529.990%
- $530 to 534.990%
- $535 to 539.990%
- $540 to 544.990%
- $545 to 549.990%
- $550 to 554.990%
- $555 to 559.990%
- $560 to 564.990%
- $565 to 569.990%
- $570 to 574.990%
- $575 to 579.990%
- $580 to 584.990%
- $585 to 589.990%
- $590 to 594.990%
- $595 to 599.990%
- $600 to 604.990%
- $605 to 609.990%
- $610 to 614.990%
- $615 to 619.990%
- $620 to 624.990%
- $765 to 769.990%
- $770 to 774.990%
- $775 to 779.990%
- $780 to 784.990%
- $785 to 789.990%
- $790 to 794.990%
- $795 to 799.990%
- $800 to 804.990%
- $805 to 809.990%
- $810 to 814.990%
- $815 to 819.990%
- $820 to 824.990%
- $825 to 829.990%
- $830 to 834.990%
- $835 to 839.990%
나머지 35개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $39.5 이상99.5%
- $39.75 이상99.5%
- $40 이상99.5%
- $40.25 이상99.5%
선택지 296개 더 보기
- $40.5 이상99.5%
- $40.75 이상99.5%
- $41 이상99.5%
- $41.25 이상99.5%
- $41.5 이상99.5%
- $41.75 이상99.5%
- $42 이상99.5%
- $42.25 이상99.5%
- $42.5 이상99.5%
- $42.75 이상99.5%
- $43 이상99.5%
- $43.25 이상99.5%
- $43.5 이상99.5%
- $43.75 이상99.5%
- $44 이상99.5%
- $44.25 이상99.5%
- $44.5 이상99.5%
- $44.75 이상99.5%
- $45 이상99.5%
- $45.25 이상99.5%
- $45.5 이상99.5%
- $45.75 이상99.5%
- $46 이상99.5%
- $46.25 이상99.5%
- $46.5 이상99.5%
- $46.75 이상99.5%
- $47 이상99.5%
- $47.25 이상99.5%
- $47.5 이상99.5%
- $47.75 이상99.5%
- $48 이상99.5%
- $48.25 이상99.5%
- $48.5 이상99.5%
- $48.75 이상99.5%
- $49 이상99.5%
- $49.25 이상99.5%
나머지 260개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $66 이상94.5%
- $73 이상71.5%
- $52 이상70.5%
- $53 이상70.5%
선택지 46개 더 보기
- $54 이상70.5%
- $55 이상70.5%
- $56 이상70.5%
- $57 이상70.5%
- $58 이상70%
- $59 이상70%
- $60 이상69.5%
- $61 이상69%
- $62 이상69%
- $63 이상68.5%
- $64 이상68%
- $65 이상67.5%
- $67 이상65.5%
- $68 이상63.5%
- $69 이상62%
- $75 이상61.5%
- $70 이상59.5%
- $71 이상57%
- $80 이상54.5%
- $72 이상54.5%
- $77 이상50.5%
- $74 이상49%
- $82 이상47%
- $78 이상45.5%
- $83 이상45.5%
- $76 이상44%
- $84 이상43.5%
- $85 이상41.5%
- $79 이상40.5%
- $86 이상40%
- $87 이상38.5%
- $88 이상36%
- $90 이상34.5%
- $81 이상31.5%
- $89 이상7.5%
- $101 이상0%
나머지 10개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $1.16 to 1.179967%
- $1.14 to 1.159932.5%
- $0.38 to 0.39990%
- $0.4 to 0.41990%
선택지 71개 더 보기
- $0.42 to 0.43990%
- $0.44 to 0.45990%
- $0.46 to 0.47990%
- $0.48 to 0.49990%
- $0.5 to 0.51990%
- $0.52 to 0.53990%
- $0.54 to 0.55990%
- $0.56 to 0.57990%
- $0.58 to 0.59990%
- $0.6 to 0.61990%
- $0.62 to 0.63990%
- $0.64 to 0.65990%
- $0.66 to 0.67990%
- $0.68 to 0.69990%
- $0.7 to 0.71990%
- $0.72 to 0.73990%
- $0.74 to 0.75990%
- $0.76 to 0.77990%
- $0.78 to 0.79990%
- $0.8 to 0.81990%
- $0.82 to 0.83990%
- $0.84 to 0.85990%
- $0.86 to 0.87990%
- $0.88 to 0.89990%
- $0.9 to 0.91990%
- $0.92 to 0.93990%
- $0.94 to 0.95990%
- $0.96 to 0.97990%
- $0.98 to 0.99990%
- $1 to 1.01990%
- $1.3 to 1.31990%
- $1.32 to 1.33990%
- $1.34 to 1.35990%
- $1.36 to 1.37990%
- $1.38 to 1.39990%
- $1.4 to 1.41990%
나머지 35개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- $1.12 to 1.139911%
- $1.14 to 1.159910.5%
- $1.16 to 1.179910.5%
- $1.1 to 1.11999.5%
선택지 46개 더 보기
- $1.18 to 1.19998%
- $1.2 to 1.21997.5%
- $1.22 to 1.23996.5%
- $0.62 to 0.63990%
- $0.64 to 0.65990%
- $0.6199999 이하0%
- $0.7 to 0.71990%
- $0.72 to 0.73990%
- $0.74 to 0.75990%
- $0.8 to 0.81990%
- $0.88 to 0.89990%
- $0.96 to 0.97990%
- $1.34 to 1.35990%
- $1.42 to 1.43990%
- $1.44 to 1.45990%
- $1.52 to 1.53990%
- $1.56 to 1.57990%
- $0.66 to 0.67990%
- $0.76 to 0.77990%
- $0.84 to 0.85990%
- $0.86 to 0.87990%
- $0.92 to 0.93990%
- $0.94 to 0.95990%
- $1.38 to 1.39990%
- $1.4 to 1.41990%
- $1.46 to 1.47990%
- $1.48 to 1.49990%
- $1.54 to 1.55990%
- $1.57991 이상0%
- $0.98 to 0.99990%
- $1.02 to 1.03990%
- $1.3 to 1.31990%
- $1.32 to 1.33990%
- $1.36 to 1.37990%
- $1 to 1.01990%
- $1.26 to 1.27990%
나머지 10개는 칼시에서 보세요.
- 예45%
- 아니요55%
- 예0%
- 아니요100%
- $0.17 이하75%
- $0.15 이하33%
- $0.10 이하0%
- $0.18 이하0%
확률 = 「예」 한 장의 마지막 거래 가격(1달러 = 100%)이며, 결과를 보장하지 않습니다. ▲▼ = 하루 전보다 바뀐 확률(%p). 폴리마켓 금액은 달러를 지금 환율로 원화로 바꾼 값, 칼시는 거래된 계약 수(1계약은 맞으면 1달러)입니다. 「모든 곳」의 거래량 순서는 칼시 계약 수에 가격을 곱해 달러 규모로 어림해 맞췄습니다. 이벤트 목록은 두 곳에서 지금 진행 중인 것 전부이며(폴리마켓 20분·칼시 10분마다 전체를 다시 받고, 인기 이벤트 가격은 5분마다), 위 숫자 칸은 그 전체의 합계입니다. 제목·선택지는 자동 번역이며, 글자 위에 마우스를 올리면 원문이 보입니다. 이벤트 제목을 누르면 해당 플랫폼으로 갑니다. 확률은 참고용 정보입니다.
자료: Polymarket · Kalshi · 3분 전 갱신 (11월 8일 03:04 받음)
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최근 1년 안에 각 나라 방송·통신·신문사와 리그·기관 공식 채널이 올린 영상 가운데 이 주제를 다룬 것만 골랐습니다. 영상 내용은 각 채널의 보도이며 투자·베팅 권유가 아닙니다. 해외 영상 제목은 기계 번역입니다.
